GLOBSEC 2017 Bratislava Forum

Maria Theresia, Grand Hotel River Park

Maria Theresia, Grand Hotel River Park

Maria Theresia, Grand Hotel River Park

Central Europe on the global map

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Maria Theresia, Grand Hotel River Park

Global Trends

In today’s globalised and interconnected world, many ongoing developments, both man-made and those beyond our control, could cause a complete reshuffle of the current status quo. Armed conflicts around the world, rise and fall of world powers, destabilisation of the world order, global warming and disruptive technologies are all on the agenda of the world leaders. How will these leaders keep the world safe and going forward with so many contradictory interests? What are the greatest challenges of today that need global attention and world-wide cooperation? What will the world order look like in coming years and decades?

Maria Theresia, Grand Hotel River Park

Danube Space, River Park Plaza

GLOBSEC Future: Navigating the Fourth Industrial Revolution

The Fourth Industrial Revolution, due to its unprecedented speed of system-wide transformation, requires quick understanding of the changing environment and continuous innovation. While receiving around half of the European public investment, the cities are true laboratories of innovation. Local authorities in partnership with businesses are seemingly far more agile and capable of coping with rapid pace and broad impact of the transformation than governments. Which of these best practices can ensure appropriate institutional adaptation to the ongoing modernisation on the national and international level? Where lies the contribution of “smart cities” to better seizing the opportunities of the Fourth Industrial Revolution? How does the EU plan to lead the way through the Fourth Industrial Revolution? Do we think strategically about investing into innovations, particularly with focus on industry 4.0, to enhance competitiveness while avoiding growing social inequality and environmental insecurity?

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Maria Theresia, Grand Hotel River Park

Visegrad Perspectives for New Europe

After years of prosperity, promotion of liberal values and significant reduction of the possibility of a military conflict on the European continent, the EU and its ability to survive in its present form is being intensively questioned. The developments of the recent years have brought the union to a state of uncertainty, great tension and concern for its future. An absence of a shared vision for Europe has been a stumbling block to further advancement of the European project, resulting in losing the course the European block should follow. But how to avert the threat of failing to find a joint way forward? and what can be seen as a viable compromise capable of bringing the union back on track? Will Member States reconsider opening the founding treaties or is a “two-speed Europe” a more likely alternative to be contemplated? How are these challenging questions perceived by the Visegrad countries and what are their perspectives on the future path of the European community?
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Maria Theresia, Grand Hotel River Park

Maria Theresia, Grand Hotel River Park

Homegrown Solutions for the Middle East

The set of security, social and political circumstances in the Middle East stir frequent discussions often leading to no constructive solutions. Terrorist threat posed by Daesh and other groups, seemingly endless violence in Syria, waves of refugees fleeing the conflict and unsustainable social conditions make up for a complex challenge. This calls for strong response and clear leadership by actors on the ground. However, only few seem to take the responsibility and show willingness to look for painful and uneasy cures. What would expulsion of Daesh from Iraq mean for the stability of the whole region? What kind of future development would this bring for Syria, facing her own demons? What steps will need to be taken to ensure a proper reconstruction of the region – in all political, economic, social and security dimensions? How should partners from the West be involved in this process? Would a concept inspired by Marshall plan be applicable to this type of political situation? And most importantly – how can a safe haven for Daesh in other parts of the MENA region be prevented?

Danube Space, River Park Plaza

Digital Subversion, Digital Restriction

In 2007, Estonia suffered, what could be considered, the first cyberattack on critical information infrastructure. Now, nearly a decade later, the world is reeling from conclusions by the U.S. intelligence community that Russia-affiliated hackers deliberately penetrated and exfiltrated internal documents from Democratic National Committee and Clinton campaign servers, in an attempt to influence the outcome of the 2016 elections. Despite public and private efforts to secure our national infrastructure, foreign cyber-attacks and their damage to national security and political interests seem to have only worsened. How can governments get proactive against attacks to their national interests? What can they do to balance security interests with privacy concerns? What is the responsibility of private sector operators? How can we secure the digital domain without restricting the economic promise of our increasingly digital economies?
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Maria Theresia, Grand Hotel River Park

Reveal and Disrupt: The Crime-terror Nexus (Upon separate invitation only, Off the Record)

Terrorist attacks in Belgium or France have highlighted the urgent need to tighten the security on the old continent. The connection between organized crime and terrorism is rarely put under the scrutiny. Yet still, on the practical level, this connection demands a day-to-day cooperation of law enforcement agencies and intelligence community. How well do these entities cooperate? How do criminals become terrorists and how are terrorist activities funded? Can the understanding of the nexus between the two be used to counter both phenomena at the same time?

Allies: Step up to the Plate (Upon separate invitation only, Off the Record)

After the collapse of the bipolar world order, the national defences on the European continent became a subject of a serious political neglect. The consequences of this development are apparent via the lenses of reduced defence budgets, underperforming military forces and insufficient equipment. Some quarter of a century later, Europe found itself in a world in which deterrence and defence are no longer just plain and compulsory terms for political speechwriters but are back in the core of strategic considerations. Nevertheless, with the US losing bits of patience with every consecutive administration, Europe faces a clear and present need to bolster its combat potential in order to be able to address threats that are emanating both from the east and the south of NATO territory. Will, however, the recent developments in the Middle East, Northern Africa or Eastern Ukraine trigger a fundamental revaluation of NATO’s defence posture? Will the Alliance strengthen its capacity to be capable of engaging in the broad spectrum of military employments? And can the individual interests of NATO’s members be united by means of joint projects in order to ensure a better institutional funding, R&D, procurement and defence planning?

26.05.2017
19:00 - 20:30

Islamic Radicalism in Southeast Asia (Upon separate invitation only, Off the Record)

Islamic extremism has expanded from the Middle East and is becoming more and more globalised. Although the societies of South East Asia have traditionally been more moderate and pluralistic, jihadist groups are not a new phenomenon. Many local groups have pledged allegiance to the ISIS and intend to create an Islamic caliphate in this region. Thanks to modern technology, communication and exporting radicalisation globally has become much easier. Therefore, countering measures have to embrace a more complex approach. Sharing know-how from different regions could be an efficient way of preventing radicalisation and violence. What are the challenges specific to South East Asia and what lessons can be learned from fighting Islamic extremism in the Middle East?

Young Lives Matter: Middle East on its way to Prosperity (Upon separate invitation only, Off the Record)

Population of the Middle East has been experiencing fast growth over the past decades, bringing over challenges of unforeseen power. The young generation represents a key driver of innovation, progress and social development, however, in order to materialise this potential, conditions of stability and prosperity need to be set – by both citizens and governments. Seeing the current circumstances in the region that faces wars, instability, civil conflicts and radicalism, one can barely imagine a more complicated set of conditions for millions of men and women in productive age to get decent jobs and build prosperity for their respective home countries. This can easily lead to these generations looking for a different life purpose, often found within radical religious and terrorist groups. Are the key actors across the region able and ready to come up with sustainable plans and instruments that would offer young people opportunities, employment and, eventually, personal and social stability? What is the role of individual citizens in this process? And how can other partners from Europe or the United States help and transfer lessons-learned and expertise in this process?

Keeping Europe Borderless: Next-gen Schengen? (Upon separate invitation only, Off the Record)

Migration crisis caught the EU by surprise and influenced national as well as European politics to the extent few may have predicted. Europe even started to seriously question its values-based project of unity resulting in a temporary reintroduction of border controls in number of countries. Measures against the unprecedented migratory flows pose, however, also threat to the functioning of the internal market – the main pillar on which the union stands. Finding an answer to the current situation is therefore of utmost importance. But can the Member States agree on a sustainable model to cope with the future migratory flows to Europe? Can the strengthened role of Frontex ensure that the Schengen area of free movement and security is a sustainable project? And what will be the impact of the migration compacts?

Multi-speed Europe: The Path after Brexit? (Off the Record)

In the wake of multiple crises Europe is facing, the European project stands on a crossroad waiting for its future path to be determined. Unprecedented migratory flows, rise of populism or the historical call of a Member state for unwinding its ties with the union sparked a debate on creating a better functioning EU capable of regaining credibility and peoples´ trust. What structure will however ensure the union reclaims its former indisputable position? Can the concept of a multi-speed Europe, which already defines the economic integration process within the EU, shape the discourse of Europe´s overall future direction? Could it prove feasible also in areas where unity of EU Member states is indispensable?

Habsburg, Grand Hotel River Park (Off the Record)

Disrupted Democracy

Principles, policies and institutions guiding the liberal world order since the World War II are being seriously challenged and questioned even by elected officials in key countries of the Western hemisphere. Outcome of the British or Italian referenda, elections in France, Germany and the Netherlands have exposed the vulnerability of liberal democracy to both external and internal threats, including populism. The backlash against globalization, multilateralism and values-based policies has brought the once isolated voices to the centre of political debate. Many political movements are using the tools of modern democracy as well as the technology to feed on fear – be it fear of terrorism, migration, borderless cyberspace or the climate change. How do we manage and preserve liberal values in the 21st century, defined by that fear? What are the strategies to counter populism and expose its deceptive tactics? Is this a signal that traditional mainstream parties are becoming obsolete? Does this mean the end of the dominance of Western values?

Danube Space, River Park Plaza

European Force Awakens

Bratislava Roadmap enacted during the informal Summit of EU leaders set our clear objectives and concrete measures in three crucial areas – migration and external borders, internal and external security and economic and social development and youth. At the same time, French and German defence ministers plan to boost the common European defence. Joint proposal of Paris and Berlin is calling for more active EU defence featuring more effective sharing of intelligence, proposes establishment of the EU defence headquarters in Brussels. How exactly will this new EU defence look like? Membership of the most of EU member states in NATO has for long been a backbone of the collective defence and security. How does this initiative fall into the NATO-based security architecture?

Lobby, Grand Hotel River Park

Palugyay Palace, Bratislava

Maria Theresia, Grand Hotel River Park

NATO Adapting to Future Challenges

Europe’s fracturing has obvious political and economic implications. Impact of Brexit, and the potential for other departures will surely affect security cooperation between NATO allies as well. In light of the ongoing crisis of European unity and growing Russian assertiveness in testing the resilience of NATO, critical strategic and tactical discussions are crucial for keeping existing security architecture in place. New realities will have to be accommodated in order to proceed with developing new strategies and acquiring new capabilities to deter threats. Salafi Jihadi extremism and other terror and criminal threats will surely not wait for Europe’s politicians to settle their debates. Will the implementation of the commitments made at Warsaw Summit suffice to strengthen the resilience of the Alliance? Will NATO be capable of adapting to the formidable challenges ahead?

Danube Space, River Park Plaza

Safeguarding the Future: How to outsmart the AI

With the fast-approaching world where AI will perform number of our current roles, safety and security remains the only limit to emerging of full AI capability. Safety challenge increases with changing behaviour of the AI based on machine learning and interactions between separately-developed AI systems. In order for the AI to be transparent, trustworthy and remain under human control, its development requires productive collaboration of whole AI community. What is currently being done to secure the emergence of the general AI? Will the developers sacrifice safety for the sake of advancing the AI capability? How to achieve enough diversity of inputs into technological development? How can legal framework support safe AI? Will safety concerns hamper the implementation of the AI into business?

1st Floor, Grand Hotel River Park

Maria Theresia, Grand Hotel River Park

GLOBSEC Debate: American Leadership: Peace through Economic Strength

With the new administration in place, the U.S. foreign policy stands at crossroads. Current U.S. president aims to return Peace through Economic Strength foreign policy concept used in the past by Reagan administration. What would be the consequences of putting the concept in practice regarding the uneasy situation in Middle East heavily influenced by the activities of military groups operating in the region? Using economic strength as a tool, would this create space for deepening the relations with Asian players? What would be the impact on the transatlantic partnership as economic power goes hand in hand with military spending?
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Intelligence for the 21st Century

The coordination of terrorist cells around the globe is becoming ever more difficult to track and disrupt thanks to the technologies like smart phones offering better connectivity and web application providing them with cover. Meanwhile the state agencies working on monitoring terrorist groups are using the outdated technology trying to find the proverbial needle in the hay. GLOBSEC Intelligence Initiative has presented its set of practical, bottom up solutions how to counter the terrorism threat in Europe by strengthening cooperation between national security agencies and between counterterrorism entities and law enforcement. How Will Europe proceed further in the effort to mitigate the threat? What are the next steps that need to be taken? How will the security apparatus in Europe work towards more cooperation in the times challenging the unity of the Union? Can the international counter-intelligence be driven by specialisation of national agencies, each developing different part of technological capabilities, such as big data analytics and open-source intelligence?
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1st Floor, Grand Hotel River Park

Maria Theresia, Grand Hotel River Park

Threat-Financing: Money, Illicit trade and (In)Security

Links between illicit trade in consumer goods and the funding of terrorist activities are widely acknowledged. Every day, consumers around the world unwittingly contribute to the eco-systems fostering groups hell-bent on attacking and destroying ideologies that uphold civilized societies. The issue and how to tackle it is complex, and requires collaborative efforts and direct action from all quarters, including regulators, industry, the security community, law enforcement, and consumers themselves. What is the scale of the issue? What would be the business recommendations and suggestions for the security community on this issue? Can counter-terrorism tools help in the fight with illegal traders? And as Daesh crumbles, do we foresee new trends in terrorism financing?
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Danube Space, River Park Plaza

Protectionism vs. Globalism: Global Free Trade Running on Innovation

Recent developments in the world politics put a big question mark over the future of the free trade agreements. While after the end of the Cold War leaders of states called for closer economic cooperation and showed great support for free trade agreements, nowadays calls for greater protectionism are rising. At the beginning of this year, UK announced its aim to negotiate bilateral free trade agreements with the EU member states and a few days later the United States withdrew from the TPP. On the other hand, negotiations on RCEP, Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, continue and China seems to be aiming to took over the position of a leader of globalisation. What is the future of free trade? Is it lying in bilateral or multilateral agreements? Are we on a path to the protectionism? Can such development endanger already fragile world stability? If the focus is on bilateral agreements, what impact will this change have on national economies?

1st Floor, Grand Hotel River Park

Danube Space, River Park Plaza

Disruptive Technologies and Future Conflict: Investing in the Future of Defence

The roadmap for the maturation of disruptive technologies requires a smart investment strategy that manages the natural tension between requirement, capability, risk and cost. In the context of building a robust transatlantic defence of the future, innovations in autonomy, deep-learning systems, human-machine combat teaming and other next-gene ration technologies can shape the vision for the art of the possible. How do we characterize the most urgent common threats that disruptive technologies must resolve? What are the important emerging technology trends that could impact transatlantic defence? To what extent do we have viable approaches to evaluate where to make technology investments? How do we define the measures of success of these disruptive technology investments?
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Maria Theresia, Grand Hotel River Park

D4: Can Democracy withstand Information Revolution?

Social media are transforming the world in a much faster way than anyone could have predicted. Traditional media are being challenged by the plurality of internet news sources and social networks. More Internet users are relying on the abundance of unfiltered alternative media that often-spread fake news or propaganda. Search engines and social media work with algorithms that personalise visible content, thus preventing exposure to differing views and reinforcing the confirmation bias. Research shows that populist and extremist right-wing groups excel in abusing these algorithms that amplify their propaganda and spread it like a virus across the Internet. What can be done to protect internet users from fake news, lies and propaganda? How can this be done without introducing censorship and impeding freedom of speech? What is the role of IT companies in this matter? To what extent do social media bear responsibility for what is regarded as relevant and trustworthy information? How can we fight extremist groups in the Internet battlefield, an environment that they have so successfully mastered?
Videohttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8cNfAOPktw8

Lobby, Grand Hotel River Park

Reduta Building, Slovak Philharmonic, Bratislava

Maria Theresia, Grand Hotel River Park

Night Owl Session A: Alliance regaining the Trust?

No attentive observer of the transatlantic political arena would deny that the world is undergoing a profound social and political change which is bound to influence the future of NATO – the cornerstone of European security. As the continuous American calls for the re-establishment of parity in allied burden-sharing have largely met with limited response on the ´old continent´ and as Europe grapples with a significant schism in (East vs. South oriented) threat perception, the public on the both sides of the Atlantic struggles to perceive the Alliance in its declared shape and competence. What is more worrisome, the UK´s departure from the political Europe might only enhance the sense of public apathy vis-à-vis established political institutions and towards their overall competence and general legitimacy. In such conditions, similarly to other established international institutions, the Alliance reaches a unique milestone in its history – one where its existence might depend on its ability to address internal pressures rather than on its capability to face external threats and fight peer geopolitical competitors. The discussions on the NATO´s direction, funding and relevance might thus constitute the most eminent test for the ability of the transatlantic bond to persevere in the existentially-relevant times of today.

Danube Space, River Park Plaza

Western Balkans: New Battleground of the Hybrid War

With a renewed increase of geopolitics and the revival of external factors/interferences affecting the political scene in the Western Balkans, the region appears at the risk of experiencing a departure from its ambition to build closer ties with European Union and transatlantic community and pursue with that connected reforms. The perceived distance of the EU perspective resulting in a decline of motivation in a peaceful and democratic transition, such as in the case of Macedonia*, as well as growing influence of the Russian Federation in Montenegro, Serbia or Bosnia and Herzegovina, has once again given rise to a fragile state of affairs. By triggering a wave of nationalistic and inter-ethnic tensions, the recent developments cast shadow on the future and stability of this part of Europe. Will, however, NATO and the EU seek to re-establish their positions in the region in an effort to show they are worth approaching? Or will the Western Balkans’ fate be rather shaped by Russia and other external actors?

Maria Theresia, Grand Hotel River Park

GLOBSEC Future Talk: Disruption Countdown to Abdundant Future (Off the Record)

Recently, the term „disruption“ has become the buzzword of the technology community but is increasingly penetrating into other spheres as well. In essence, its purpose focuses on rendering the old paradigms obsolete and coming up with never before seen ideas that shake up everything we have known so far. Culture of risk and failure typical for start-up community is crucial for breeding such disruption. Moreover, the bond between various industries frequently causes transformation in unrelated domains, often as unintended but welcome side effect. Are disruptive technologies disrupting our governance too? If so, how? What are the parallels between technological, political and social disruption? How can politicians draw inspiration from innovators? Why do responsible politicians need to pay attention to disruptive industries? How far we are from the abundant future and how it will look like?

1st Floor , Grand Hotel River Park

Maria Theresia, Grand Hotel River Park

Eastern Neighbourhood 2017: Times of Turmoil ahead?

Deepening of the economic cooperation as well as strengthening the political stability in Eastern European countries have been among the key priorities of the European Commission for years. Although the impacts of the recent developments on the global political stage, as the Britain’s decision to leave the EU or the outcome of the US elections, on Eastern Europe is yet to be seen, these events have already reverberated through the region, fuelling more insecurity. How is this changing environment impacting the efforts of Georgia or Ukraine to pursue modernisation, reform and closer integration with the Euro-Atlantic structures? What support should the West provide to these countries in such fluid context and is there a way to decrease tensions with Russia in the region? If so, how?
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1st Floor, Grand Hotel River Park

Maria Theresia, Grand Hotel River Park

European (Dis)Union?

Last two years were arguably the most challenging times for the project of united Europe. A multitude of crises had encouraged the rise of populism and nationalistic rhetoric which is ever more vocal. On the other hand, year 2017 already featured some significant signs of relief for euro-optimists, like the election of President Macron, defeat of populists in the Netherlands or Austria. Faced with the challenge of Brexit, leaders in Brussels and in capitals proved more than capable to find a united voice. In addition, the European Commission, under President Juncker have presented their ambitious vision of the model of the Union. Debates about the future of Europe had been the crucial ingredient of the Slovak Presidency of the European Council and have stayed on the top of the agenda on high level meetings and international conferences. Politicians all over Europe are on the quest to boost optimism and reinvigorate the trust of people in European project. Will 2017 represent a turning point for Europe? How will we create smarter institutions, leaner and more effective Europe while keeping it united?
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Maria Theresia, Grand Hotel River Park