Five Security Scenarios on Russian War in Ukraine for 2022–2023: Implications and Policy Recommendations to Western Partners

What are the potential short- and medium-term security developments in Ukraine? GLOBSEC’s new report proposes five possible scenarios of political and military transformations with varying degrees of likelihood. It combines the elements of foresight, expert survey, brainstorming, and desk-research instruments to map possible transformations and changes in Ukraine’s security environment. The project team anchored much of their research around an article by the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Valeriy Zaluzhnyi.

The top ten factors, selected by influential Ukrainian experts, helped us project various positive and negative options for the transformation of Ukraine’s security situation in 2023. We have included probability scores for each scenario based on experts’ reading of the current events in and around the Russian war against Ukraine. Nonetheless, as stated above, the absence of comprehensive information across open sources may also challenge our estimates alongside the frequency of changes and new developments, which may not have been present at the time of writing.

All the proposed scenarios have a common denominator: Russia will never relinquish the idea of conquering Ukraine and destroying its statehood. Therefore, even in the positive scenarios, it remains vital to foresee effective measures to deter Russia and make it incapable of retaliating in mid- and long-term perspectives. To prevent negative scenarios and amplify positive transformations, we have outlined policy-oriented recommendations addressed to Ukraine’s western partners, international organizations, and member- states of international coalitions that support Ukraine in its fight for sovereignty, European values,
and democratic choice.

Learn more in the PDF below.